Law of Averages in Shooting

The Law of Averages: Steph Curry and the Power of Belief

May 10, 2019. Game 6. Western Conference Semifinals. Steph Curry calls it “the best 18 minutes of my career.” But if you tuned in early, you wouldn’t have seen it coming.

Halftime:
Zero points.
0-for-2 from deep.
0-for-3 inside.
Out of sync. Flat.

Most players would’ve unraveled.

Not Steph. He showed us that the Law of Averages isn’t just some numbers thing—it’s a mindset.

What’s the Law of Averages?

Simple: over time, your performance evens out. Slumps don’t last. Catching fire doesn't last either. Keep taking smart shots, and things eventually tip your way.

The Turnaround

Then came the second half.

4-of-9 from three. (44%)
5-of-6 inside. (83%)
11 straight free throws. (100%)

33 points—all after halftime. 23 in the fourth quarter alone.

No forcing. No panic. Just belief in the reps, the rhythm, the work. And like it always does, the game caught up.

What I Tell My Players

Don't get too high, don't get too low. Everyone hits a wall. Shots miss. Confidence dips. But the best? They don’t flinch. They don’t overreact. They trust the averages.
“If you're a 40% shooter and you start 0-for-5, you should start getting excited cause guess what, you're about to catch fire soon, be patient.  That’s how this works—if you stay ready, and keep taking your shots with your regular form.”

Steph stayed ready. In 18 minutes, he reminded us: Cold stretches happen. Cold hearts don’t have to.

Let It Work

Train with purpose. Trust your form. Stick to smart shots. And when the rim stays unkind?

Keep firing. The Law of Averages always shows up—just don’t bench yourself before it does.

[See full game stats]

The Math Behing "The Law of Averages"

The Myth vs. The Math

The Myth:
“If I’ve missed 5 in a row, I’m bound to make the next one.”

The Math:
If you’re a 50% shooter, that means:

• Every shot is still a 50% chance—independent of your last few shots.

• Over time (larger sample of shots), your average shooting % will converge to 50%—if your shot quality and form stay consistent.

Mathematical Principles Behind It

1. Law of Large Numbers

The more trials you perform, the closer your observed average will get to your expected average.

If you shoot 5 shots and go 0-for-5, that’s 0%.
But after 100 shots, if you're truly a 50% shooter, you’ll likely be somewhere near 50.

2. Regression to the Average/Mean

Outlier performances tend to be followed by performances closer to your average.

If a great shooter starts ice-cold (0 for 7), they’re more likely to heat up eventually because:

• Their long-term average is higher.

• The bad stretch is an anomaly.

This is what happened in Steph Curry’s Game 6, 2019:

• 0 points in 1st half (cold streak)

• 33 points in 2nd half (reversion to average)

A Quick Example:

Let’s say your true FG% is 50%.
If you take:

• 10 shots → you might go 2-for-10 (20%) or 7-for-10 (70%)

• 100 shots → you’ll likely end up between 45–55%

• 1000 shots → probably very close to 50%

That’s statistical convergence: over time, randomness balances out.

In-Game Coaching Takeaway

• Don't chase the Law of Averages shot-by-shot.

• Instead, trust it over the full game or week of practice.

• Use it to build confidence: "If I stay locked in and keep getting quality shots, the numbers will work out."

Hope this mental trick helps you level-up your game.